Yield Forecast Calculator

Every number this calculator uses is something you manage: stand count comes from planting and replanting, cycle time from ratoon vigour, bunch weight from water and nutrition. Forecasting turns those into tonnes you can plan labour, storage and sales around.

Yield and production forecast

Steady-state annual production from stand, cycle and bunch weight, with scenarios.

Block area (ha)

Plants per hectare From the density calculator

Productive stand (%) Healthy, fruiting mats after gaps and losses

Bunch weight (kg) Dessert export 16–22 · plantain 10–16

Saleable share (%) Grade-out, field losses and own use

Months to first harvest Plant crop only — used for the first-harvest note

Ratoon cycle (months) Harvest to harvest of the same mat

Farm-gate price (per kg) 0 to skip the revenue estimate

The formulas#

Productive stands/ha = plants/ha × productive stand %

Harvests per year    = 12 ÷ ratoon cycle (months)

Bunches/ha/year      = productive stands/ha × harvests per year

Gross yield (t/ha)   = bunches/ha/year × bunch weight (kg) ÷ 1,000

Saleable yield       = gross × saleable share

Block production (t) = saleable t/ha × block area (ha)

Revenue              = block production × 1,000 × farm-gate price

One bunch per productive mat per cycle is the model. It assumes the ratoon replaces the plant — which is what desuckering, propping and nutrition are for.

Worked example#

A 5 ha block: 1,667 plants/ha, 92% productive stand, 18 kg bunches, 85% saleable, 11-month ratoon cycle, $0.30/kg:

Productive stands = 1,667 × 0.92          = 1,534/ha
Harvests/year     = 12 ÷ 11               = 1.09
Bunches/ha/year   = 1,534 × 1.09          = 1,673
Gross             = 1,673 × 18 ÷ 1,000    = 30.1 t/ha
Saleable          = 30.1 × 0.85           = 25.6 t/ha
Block production  = 25.6 × 5              = 128.0 t
Revenue           = 128,000 × $0.30       = $38,400

Compare the saleable figure with the yield benchmarks — if your forecast sits above the export-elite row, one of the inputs is optimistic.

Reading the results#

Output	Why it matters
Productive stands/ha	What is actually left after gaps — replanting raises this directly
Harvests per year	A 10-month cycle gives 1.2 harvests/yr; 14 months gives 0.86
Bunches/ha/year	The unit labour, bags and transport are planned against
Saleable t/ha	The number that goes into margin calculations
Block production	Total tonnes to schedule labour and marketing for
Scenarios	The spread between a managed cycle and a stressed one

Next steps#

Hit the weight end of it: Water management and Nutrition.
Protect the harvest: Harvest date estimator and Post-harvest handling.
Turn tonnes into money: Farm budget calculator and Economics and records.